Grimsby Town
Exeter City
The model leans Grimsby Town at 51%. Expected goals: Grimsby Town 1.82, Exeter City 0.98. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 53%. Grimsby Town won 1 of their last 5; Exeter City won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Grimsby Town | 56% | 1.79 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 3.99 | – | – | – |
| 2Exeter City | 19% | 5.25 | – | – | – |
Pick: Grimsby Town. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 56%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 81%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.82 – 0.98| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 2.5 | 53% | 47% |
| 3.5 | 31% | 69% |
| Both teams to score | Yes52% | No48% |
Most likely scores
- 1–011.1%
- 1–110.9%
- 2–010.1%
- 2–19.9%
- 0–06.1%
- 3–06.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Grimsby Town −1| Grimsby Town line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 33% | – | 67% |
| -1 | 33% | 24% | 43% |
| -0.5 | 57% | – | 43% |
| 0 | 57% | 23% | 20% |
| +0.5 | 80% | – | 20% |
| +1 | 80% | 13% | 7% |
| +1.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.