Accrington Stanley
Grimsby Town
The model leans Grimsby Town at 47%. Expected goals: Accrington Stanley 0.94, Grimsby Town 1.50. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 52%. Accrington Stanley won 0 of their last 6; Grimsby Town won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Accrington Stanley | 22% | 4.46 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.50 | – | – | – |
| 2Grimsby Town | 49% | 2.04 | – | – | – |
Pick: Grimsby Town. Calibrated probability 47% (raw model output 49%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.94 – 1.50| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 70% | 30% |
| 2.5 | 44% | 56% |
| 3.5 | 23% | 77% |
| Both teams to score | Yes47% | No53% |
Most likely scores
- 0–113.1%
- 1–112.3%
- 0–29.8%
- 1–29.2%
- 0–08.8%
- 1–08.2%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 51% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Grimsby Town −0.5| Accrington Stanley line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 8% | – | 92% |
| -1 | 8% | 15% | 76% |
| -0.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| 0 | 24% | 26% | 50% |
| +0.5 | 50% | – | 50% |
| +1 | 50% | 25% | 26% |
| +1.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.