Crewe Alexandra
Accrington Stanley
The model leans Crewe Alexandra at 45%. Expected goals: Crewe Alexandra 1.43, Accrington Stanley 0.90. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 54%. Crewe Alexandra won 3 of their last 6; Accrington Stanley won 0 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Crewe Alexandra | 48% | 2.07 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.40 | – | – | – |
| 2Accrington Stanley | 22% | 4.48 | – | – | – |
Pick: Crewe Alexandra. Calibrated probability 45% (raw model output 48%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.43 – 0.90| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 2.5 | 41% | 59% |
| 3.5 | 21% | 79% |
| Both teams to score | Yes45% | No55% |
Most likely scores
- 1–013.9%
- 1–112.5%
- 2–010.0%
- 0–09.7%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–18.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 54% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Crewe Alexandra −0.5| Crewe Alexandra line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| -1 | 24% | 25% | 50% |
| -0.5 | 50% | – | 50% |
| 0 | 50% | 27% | 24% |
| +0.5 | 76% | – | 24% |
| +1 | 76% | 16% | 8% |
| +1.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.