Barnsley
Crewe Alexandra
The model leans Barnsley at 41%. Expected goals: Barnsley 1.67, Crewe Alexandra 1.32. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 60%. Barnsley won 3 of their last 6; Crewe Alexandra won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Barnsley | 45% | 2.24 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.82 | – | – | – |
| 2Crewe Alexandra | 29% | 3.42 | – | – | – |
Pick: Barnsley. Calibrated probability 41% (raw model output 45%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.67 – 1.32| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 80% | 20% |
| 2.5 | 57% | 43% |
| 3.5 | 35% | 65% |
| Both teams to score | Yes59% | No41% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.1%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–08.5%
- 1–27.3%
- 2–07.0%
- 0–16.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 52% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Barnsley −0.5| Barnsley line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| -1 | 24% | 22% | 54% |
| -0.5 | 46% | – | 54% |
| 0 | 46% | 24% | 30% |
| +0.5 | 70% | – | 30% |
| +1 | 70% | 17% | 13% |
| +1.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.