Barnsley
Blackpool
The model leans Barnsley at 38%. Expected goals: Barnsley 1.55, Blackpool 1.36. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 60%. Barnsley won 3 of their last 6; Blackpool won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Barnsley | 41% | 2.45 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.72 | – | – | – |
| 2Blackpool | 32% | 3.10 | – | – | – |
Pick: Barnsley. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 41%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.55 – 1.36| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 79% | 21% |
| 2.5 | 56% | 44% |
| 3.5 | 33% | 67% |
| Both teams to score | Yes59% | No41% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.5%
- 2–18.9%
- 1–08.4%
- 1–27.8%
- 0–17.4%
- 2–06.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 51% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Barnsley 0| Barnsley line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 21% | – | 79% |
| -1 | 21% | 21% | 58% |
| -0.5 | 42% | – | 58% |
| 0 | 42% | 25% | 33% |
| +0.5 | 67% | – | 33% |
| +1 | 67% | 18% | 15% |
| +1.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.