Predictions · League One · outside model coverage

Stockport County

12
Lost

Blackpool

The model leans Stockport County at 50%. Expected goals: Stockport County 1.72, Blackpool 1.00. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 53%. Stockport County won 3 of their last 6; Blackpool won 3 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Stockport County53%1.88
XDraw26%3.83
2Blackpool21%4.80

Pick: Stockport County. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 53%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 79%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.72 – 1.00
LineOverUnder
1.576%24%
2.551%49%
3.529%71%
Both teams to scoreYes52%No48%

Most likely scores

  • 1111.3%
  • 1011.3%
  • 219.7%
  • 209.7%
  • 016.6%
  • 006.6%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 45% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Stockport County −0.5
Stockport County lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.530%70%
-130%24%46%
-0.554%46%
054%24%22%
+0.578%22%
+178%14%8%
+1.592%8%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.