Plymouth Argyle
Stockport County
The model leans Plymouth Argyle at 40%. Expected goals: Plymouth Argyle 1.72, Stockport County 1.41. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 63%. Plymouth Argyle won 1 of their last 6; Stockport County won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Plymouth Argyle | 44% | 2.28 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.92 | – | – | – |
| 2Stockport County | 31% | 3.27 | – | – | – |
Pick: Plymouth Argyle. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 44%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.72 – 1.41| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82% | 18% |
| 2.5 | 61% | 39% |
| 3.5 | 38% | 62% |
| Both teams to score | Yes62% | No38% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.6%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–07.5%
- 1–27.5%
- 2–06.5%
- 2–26.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Plymouth Argyle −0.5| Plymouth Argyle line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| -1 | 24% | 21% | 55% |
| -0.5 | 45% | – | 55% |
| 0 | 45% | 23% | 32% |
| +0.5 | 68% | – | 32% |
| +1 | 68% | 17% | 14% |
| +1.5 | 86% | – | 14% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.