Plymouth Argyle
Coventry City
The model leans Coventry City at 42%. Expected goals: Plymouth Argyle 1.38, Coventry City 1.77. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 63%. Plymouth Argyle won 1 of their last 6; Coventry City won 3 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Plymouth Argyle | 29% | 3.45 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 3.96 | – | – | – |
| 2Coventry City | 46% | 2.19 | – | – | – |
Pick: Coventry City. Calibrated probability 42% (raw model output 46%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.38 – 1.77| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82% | 18% |
| 2.5 | 61% | 39% |
| 3.5 | 39% | 61% |
| Both teams to score | Yes62% | No38% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.5%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–17.6%
- 2–17.2%
- 0–26.7%
- 2–26.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Coventry City −0.5| Plymouth Argyle line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 13% | – | 87% |
| -1 | 13% | 17% | 70% |
| -0.5 | 30% | – | 70% |
| 0 | 30% | 23% | 47% |
| +0.5 | 53% | – | 47% |
| +1 | 53% | 21% | 25% |
| +1.5 | 75% | – | 25% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.