Northampton Town
Coventry City
The model leans Coventry City at 61%. Expected goals: Northampton Town 0.77, Coventry City 2.19. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 51%. Northampton Town won 0 of their last 6; Coventry City won 3 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Northampton Town | 11% | 9.12 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 20% | 4.96 | – | – | – |
| 2Coventry City | 69% | 1.45 | – | – | – |
Pick: Coventry City. Calibrated probability 61% (raw model output 69%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 89%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.77 – 2.19| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 79% | 21% |
| 2.5 | 57% | 43% |
| 3.5 | 34% | 66% |
| Both teams to score | Yes48% | No52% |
Most likely scores
- 0–212.4%
- 0–111.4%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–39.0%
- 1–18.8%
- 1–37.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 52% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Coventry City −1.5| Northampton Town line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 3% | – | 97% |
| -1 | 3% | 8% | 88% |
| -0.5 | 12% | – | 88% |
| 0 | 12% | 18% | 70% |
| +0.5 | 30% | – | 70% |
| +1 | 30% | 24% | 46% |
| +1.5 | 54% | – | 46% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.