Coventry City
Espanyol
The model leans Coventry City at 50%. Expected goals: Coventry City 1.58, Espanyol 0.97. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 50%. Coventry City won 3 of their last 5; Espanyol won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Coventry City | 50% | 1.99 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.61 | – | – | – |
| 2Espanyol | 22% | 4.53 | – | – | – |
Pick: Coventry City. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 50%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.58 – 0.97| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 2.5 | 47% | 53% |
| 3.5 | 25% | 75% |
| Both teams to score | Yes49% | No51% |
Most likely scores
- 1–012.4%
- 1–112.0%
- 2–09.7%
- 2–19.4%
- 0–07.8%
- 0–17.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Coventry City −0.5| Coventry City line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 27% | – | 73% |
| -1 | 27% | 25% | 49% |
| -0.5 | 51% | – | 49% |
| 0 | 51% | 25% | 23% |
| +0.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
| +1 | 77% | 15% | 8% |
| +1.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.