Espanyol
Pau
The model leans Espanyol at 62%. Expected goals: Espanyol 2.45, Pau 0.87. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 54%. Espanyol won 2 of their last 6; Pau won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Espanyol | 71% | 1.40 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 18% | 5.53 | – | – | – |
| 2Pau | 11% | 9.47 | – | – | – |
Pick: Espanyol. Calibrated probability 62% (raw model output 71%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 89%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.45 – 0.87| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 84% | 16% |
| 2.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 3.5 | 42% | 58% |
| Both teams to score | Yes53% | No47% |
Most likely scores
- 2–010.9%
- 2–19.4%
- 3–08.9%
- 1–08.9%
- 3–17.7%
- 1–17.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Espanyol −1.5| Espanyol line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 50% | – | 50% |
| -1 | 50% | 22% | 28% |
| -0.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
| 0 | 72% | 17% | 11% |
| +0.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
| +1 | 89% | 8% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.