Pau
Nancy
The model leans Pau at 41%. Expected goals: Pau 1.76, Nancy 1.42. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 64%. Pau won 1 of their last 5; Nancy won 2 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Pau | 45% | 2.24 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 3.96 | – | – | – |
| 2Nancy | 30% | 3.33 | – | – | – |
Pick: Pau. Calibrated probability 41% (raw model output 45%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.76 – 1.42| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 83% | 17% |
| 2.5 | 61% | 39% |
| 3.5 | 39% | 61% |
| Both teams to score | Yes63% | No37% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.4%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–27.4%
- 1–07.4%
- 2–26.5%
- 2–06.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Pau −0.5| Pau line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 25% | – | 75% |
| -1 | 25% | 21% | 54% |
| -0.5 | 46% | – | 54% |
| 0 | 46% | 23% | 31% |
| +0.5 | 69% | – | 31% |
| +1 | 69% | 17% | 14% |
| +1.5 | 86% | – | 14% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.