Nancy
Troyes
The model leans Troyes at 51%. Expected goals: Nancy 0.94, Troyes 1.87. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 52%. Nancy won 2 of their last 5; Troyes won 3 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Nancy | 17% | 5.74 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.10 | – | – | – |
| 2Troyes | 58% | 1.72 | – | – | – |
Pick: Troyes. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 58%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 83%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.94 – 1.87| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 2.5 | 53% | 47% |
| 3.5 | 31% | 69% |
| Both teams to score | Yes51% | No49% |
Most likely scores
- 0–111.3%
- 1–110.6%
- 0–210.6%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–36.6%
- 1–36.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Troyes −1| Nancy line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 6% | – | 94% |
| -1 | 6% | 12% | 82% |
| -0.5 | 18% | – | 82% |
| 0 | 18% | 22% | 59% |
| +0.5 | 41% | – | 59% |
| +1 | 41% | 25% | 35% |
| +1.5 | 65% | – | 35% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.