Troyes
Paris FC
The model leans Troyes at 30%. Expected goals: Troyes 1.34, Paris FC 1.34. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 56%. Troyes won 3 of their last 4; Paris FC won 1 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Unibet_France| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Troyes | 36% | 2.79 | 3.10 | 30% | +6 |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.51 | 3.70 | 25% | +3 |
| 2Paris FC | 36% | 2.79 | 2.10 | 45% | −9 |
Pick: Troyes. Calibrated probability 30% (raw model output 36%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.34 – 1.34| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| 3.5 | 28% | 72% |
| Both teams to score | Yes54% | No46% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.3%
- 0–19.2%
- 1–09.2%
- 1–28.2%
- 2–18.2%
- 0–06.9%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 11% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Troyes 0| Troyes line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 17% | – | 83% |
| -1 | 17% | 20% | 63% |
| -0.5 | 37% | – | 63% |
| 0 | 37% | 26% | 37% |
| +0.5 | 63% | – | 37% |
| +1 | 63% | 20% | 17% |
| +1.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.