Paris FC
Nice
The model leans Paris FC at 51%. Expected goals: Paris FC 1.76, Nice 0.89. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 50%. Paris FC won 1 of their last 3; Nice won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Unibet_France| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Paris FC | 57% | 1.76 | 2.00 | 47% | +10 |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.91 | 3.30 | 28% | −3 |
| 2Nice | 18% | 5.65 | 3.75 | 25% | −7 |
Pick: Paris FC. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 57%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 82%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.76 – 0.89| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 2.5 | 49% | 51% |
| 3.5 | 27% | 73% |
| Both teams to score | Yes49% | No51% |
Most likely scores
- 1–012.5%
- 1–111.1%
- 2–010.9%
- 2–19.7%
- 0–07.1%
- 3–06.4%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 41% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Paris FC −1| Paris FC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 33% | – | 67% |
| -1 | 33% | 25% | 42% |
| -0.5 | 58% | – | 42% |
| 0 | 58% | 23% | 19% |
| +0.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
| +1 | 81% | 13% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.