Marseille
Nice
The model leans Marseille at 56%. Expected goals: Marseille 2.18, Nice 0.94. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 55%. Marseille won 2 of their last 5; Nice won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Marseille | 65% | 1.54 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 21% | 4.74 | – | – | – |
| 2Nice | 14% | 7.06 | – | – | – |
Pick: Marseille. Calibrated probability 56% (raw model output 65%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 86%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.18 – 0.94| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82% | 18% |
| 2.5 | 60% | 40% |
| 3.5 | 38% | 62% |
| Both teams to score | Yes54% | No46% |
Most likely scores
- 2–010.5%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–09.6%
- 1–19.0%
- 3–07.6%
- 3–17.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Marseille −1| Marseille line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 42% | – | 58% |
| -1 | 42% | 23% | 34% |
| -0.5 | 66% | – | 34% |
| 0 | 66% | 19% | 15% |
| +0.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
| +1 | 85% | 10% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.