Marseille
Athletic Club
The model leans Marseille at 51%. Expected goals: Marseille 1.94, Athletic Club 1.08. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 58%. Marseille won 2 of their last 5; Athletic Club won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Marseille | 56% | 1.77 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.18 | – | – | – |
| 2Athletic Club | 20% | 5.07 | – | – | – |
Pick: Marseille. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 56%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 80%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.94 – 1.08| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 80% | 20% |
| 2.5 | 58% | 42% |
| 3.5 | 36% | 64% |
| Both teams to score | Yes57% | No43% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.2%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–09.4%
- 2–09.2%
- 3–16.4%
- 3–05.9%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 54% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Marseille −1| Marseille line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 34% | – | 66% |
| -1 | 34% | 24% | 43% |
| -0.5 | 57% | – | 43% |
| 0 | 57% | 22% | 21% |
| +0.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
| +1 | 79% | 13% | 8% |
| +1.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.