Athletic Club
Sevilla
The model leans Athletic Club at 38%. Expected goals: Athletic Club 1.39, Sevilla 1.15. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 52%. Athletic Club won 2 of their last 6; Sevilla won 3 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_Spain| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Athletic Club | 41% | 2.43 | 1.75 | 55% | −13 |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.44 | 3.60 | 27% | +3 |
| 2Sevilla | 30% | 3.36 | 5.00 | 19% | +11 |
Pick: Athletic Club. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 41%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 71%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.39 – 1.15| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 2.5 | 46% | 54% |
| 3.5 | 25% | 75% |
| Both teams to score | Yes51% | No49% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.6%
- 1–011.0%
- 0–19.1%
- 2–18.8%
- 0–07.9%
- 2–07.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Athletic Club 0| Athletic Club line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 20% | – | 80% |
| -1 | 20% | 22% | 58% |
| -0.5 | 42% | – | 58% |
| 0 | 42% | 27% | 31% |
| +0.5 | 69% | – | 31% |
| +1 | 69% | 19% | 12% |
| +1.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.