Burgos CF
Athletic Club
The model leans Burgos CF at 38%. Expected goals: Burgos CF 1.01, Athletic Club 0.71. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 67%. Burgos CF won 1 of their last 4; Athletic Club won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Burgos CF | 40% | 2.48 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 36% | 2.79 | – | – | – |
| 2Athletic Club | 24% | 4.21 | – | – | – |
Pick: Burgos CF. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.01 – 0.71| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 51% | 49% |
| 2.5 | 25% | 75% |
| 3.5 | 10% | 90% |
| Both teams to score | Yes32% | No68% |
Most likely scores
- 1–018.1%
- 0–018.0%
- 1–112.8%
- 0–112.7%
- 2–09.1%
- 2–16.5%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 61% · BTTS No 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Burgos CF 0| Burgos CF line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16% | – | 84% |
| -1 | 16% | 25% | 58% |
| -0.5 | 42% | – | 58% |
| 0 | 42% | 33% | 25% |
| +0.5 | 75% | – | 25% |
| +1 | 75% | 18% | 7% |
| +1.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.