Predictions · LaLiga2 · outside model coverage
Burgos CF
3–2
Won
Cordoba
The model leans Burgos CF at 50%. Expected goals: Burgos CF 1.32, Cordoba 0.64. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 64%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match52
31
17
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Burgos CF | 52% | 1.93 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.21 | – | – | – |
| 2Cordoba | 17% | 5.89 | – | – | – |
Pick: Burgos CF. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 52%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 83%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.32 – 0.64| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 58% | 42% |
| 2.5 | 31% | 69% |
| 3.5 | 14% | 86% |
| Both teams to score | Yes35% | No65% |
Most likely scores
- 1–018.5%
- 0–014.0%
- 2–012.2%
- 1–111.9%
- 0–19.0%
- 2–17.9%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Burgos CF −0.5| Burgos CF line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 26% | – | 74% |
| -1 | 26% | 28% | 47% |
| -0.5 | 53% | – | 47% |
| 0 | 53% | 29% | 18% |
| +0.5 | 82% | – | 18% |
| +1 | 82% | 13% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.