Burgos CF
Real Sociedad B
The model leans Burgos CF at 50%. Expected goals: Burgos CF 1.25, Real Sociedad B 0.55. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 69%. Burgos CF won 1 of their last 4; Real Sociedad B won 1 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Burgos CF | 53% | 1.90 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 32% | 3.09 | – | – | – |
| 2Real Sociedad B | 15% | 6.60 | – | – | – |
Pick: Burgos CF. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 53%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 85%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.25 – 0.55| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 54% | 46% |
| 2.5 | 27% | 73% |
| 3.5 | 11% | 89% |
| Both teams to score | Yes30% | No70% |
Most likely scores
- 1–020.7%
- 0–016.6%
- 2–012.9%
- 1–111.3%
- 0–19.1%
- 2–17.1%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 60% · BTTS No 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Burgos CF −0.5| Burgos CF line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 25% | – | 75% |
| -1 | 25% | 29% | 46% |
| -0.5 | 54% | – | 46% |
| 0 | 54% | 30% | 16% |
| +0.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
| +1 | 84% | 13% | 4% |
| +1.5 | 96% | – | 4% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.