Predictions · Club Friendlies · outside model coverage
Real Zaragoza
3–1
Lost
Athletic Club
The model leans Athletic Club at 46%. Expected goals: Real Zaragoza 0.76, Athletic Club 1.31. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 60%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match20
31
48
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Real Zaragoza | 20% | 4.90 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.21 | – | – | – |
| 2Athletic Club | 48% | 2.06 | – | – | – |
Pick: Athletic Club. Calibrated probability 46% (raw model output 48%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 80%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.76 – 1.31| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 61% | 39% |
| 2.5 | 34% | 66% |
| 3.5 | 16% | 84% |
| Both teams to score | Yes39% | No61% |
Most likely scores
- 0–116.5%
- 0–012.6%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–210.8%
- 1–09.6%
- 1–28.2%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Athletic Club −0.5| Real Zaragoza line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 6% | – | 94% |
| -1 | 6% | 15% | 78% |
| -0.5 | 22% | – | 78% |
| 0 | 22% | 29% | 50% |
| +0.5 | 50% | – | 50% |
| +1 | 50% | 26% | 23% |
| +1.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.