NEC Nijmegen
Sevilla
The model leans NEC Nijmegen at 45%. Expected goals: NEC Nijmegen 1.94, Sevilla 1.44. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 66%. NEC Nijmegen won 3 of their last 6; Sevilla won 3 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1NEC Nijmegen | 48% | 2.07 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.18 | – | – | – |
| 2Sevilla | 28% | 3.59 | – | – | – |
Pick: NEC Nijmegen. Calibrated probability 45% (raw model output 48%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.94 – 1.44| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 85% | 15% |
| 2.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 3.5 | 44% | 56% |
| Both teams to score | Yes65% | No35% |
Most likely scores
- 1–19.5%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–26.9%
- 2–26.7%
- 1–06.6%
- 2–06.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: NEC Nijmegen −0.5| NEC Nijmegen line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 28% | – | 72% |
| -1 | 28% | 21% | 51% |
| -0.5 | 49% | – | 51% |
| 0 | 49% | 22% | 29% |
| +0.5 | 71% | – | 29% |
| +1 | 71% | 16% | 13% |
| +1.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.