NEC Nijmegen
Olympiacos
The model leans Olympiacos at 44%. Expected goals: NEC Nijmegen 1.18, Olympiacos 1.64. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 57%. NEC Nijmegen won 3 of their last 6; Olympiacos won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1NEC Nijmegen | 26% | 3.81 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.75 | – | – | – |
| 2Olympiacos | 47% | 2.12 | – | – | – |
Pick: Olympiacos. Calibrated probability 44% (raw model output 47%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.18 – 1.64| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 2.5 | 54% | 46% |
| 3.5 | 31% | 69% |
| Both teams to score | Yes56% | No44% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.5%
- 0–19.8%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–28.0%
- 1–07.0%
- 2–16.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Olympiacos −0.5| NEC Nijmegen line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11% | – | 89% |
| -1 | 11% | 16% | 73% |
| -0.5 | 27% | – | 73% |
| 0 | 27% | 24% | 48% |
| +0.5 | 52% | – | 48% |
| +1 | 52% | 23% | 25% |
| +1.5 | 75% | – | 25% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.