NEC Nijmegen
Telstar
The model leans NEC Nijmegen at 51%. Expected goals: NEC Nijmegen 2.37, Telstar 1.52. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 72%. NEC Nijmegen won 3 of their last 6; Telstar won 2 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1NEC Nijmegen | 56% | 1.79 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 21% | 4.80 | – | – | – |
| 2Telstar | 23% | 4.28 | – | – | – |
Pick: NEC Nijmegen. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 56%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 79%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.37 – 1.52| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 90% | 10% |
| 2.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 3.5 | 55% | 45% |
| Both teams to score | Yes71% | No29% |
Most likely scores
- 2–18.7%
- 1–17.4%
- 3–16.9%
- 2–26.6%
- 2–05.7%
- 1–25.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 60% · BTTS Yes 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: NEC Nijmegen −1| NEC Nijmegen line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 36% | – | 64% |
| -1 | 36% | 21% | 44% |
| -0.5 | 56% | – | 44% |
| 0 | 56% | 19% | 24% |
| +0.5 | 76% | – | 24% |
| +1 | 76% | 13% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.