Sparta Rotterdam
Telstar
The model leans Telstar at 40%. Expected goals: Sparta Rotterdam 1.51, Telstar 1.81. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 66%. Sparta Rotterdam won 1 of their last 6; Telstar won 2 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sparta Rotterdam | 31% | 3.18 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 4.05 | – | – | – |
| 2Telstar | 44% | 2.28 | – | – | – |
Pick: Telstar. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 44%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.51 – 1.81| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 84% | 16% |
| 2.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 3.5 | 42% | 58% |
| Both teams to score | Yes65% | No35% |
Most likely scores
- 1–19.9%
- 1–28.9%
- 2–17.5%
- 2–26.7%
- 0–16.6%
- 0–25.9%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Telstar −0.5| Sparta Rotterdam line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15% | – | 85% |
| -1 | 15% | 17% | 68% |
| -0.5 | 32% | – | 68% |
| 0 | 32% | 23% | 45% |
| +0.5 | 55% | – | 45% |
| +1 | 55% | 21% | 24% |
| +1.5 | 76% | – | 24% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.