Sparta Rotterdam
FC Utrecht
The model leans FC Utrecht at 44%. Expected goals: Sparta Rotterdam 1.23, FC Utrecht 1.72. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 59%. Sparta Rotterdam won 1 of their last 6; FC Utrecht won 0 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sparta Rotterdam | 26% | 3.79 | 2.63 | 36% | −10 |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.85 | 3.40 | 28% | −2 |
| 2FC Utrecht | 48% | 2.10 | 2.63 | 36% | +12 |
Pick: FC Utrecht. Calibrated probability 44% (raw model output 48%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.23 – 1.72| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 79% | 21% |
| 2.5 | 56% | 44% |
| 3.5 | 34% | 66% |
| Both teams to score | Yes58% | No42% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.1%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–19.0%
- 0–27.7%
- 2–16.8%
- 1–06.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 51% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FC Utrecht −0.5| Sparta Rotterdam line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11% | – | 89% |
| -1 | 11% | 16% | 73% |
| -0.5 | 27% | – | 73% |
| 0 | 27% | 24% | 49% |
| +0.5 | 51% | – | 49% |
| +1 | 51% | 23% | 26% |
| +1.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.