FC Groningen
FC Utrecht
The model leans FC Utrecht at 29%. Expected goals: FC Groningen 1.29, FC Utrecht 1.29. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 54%. FC Groningen won 3 of their last 6; FC Utrecht won 0 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Groningen | 35% | 2.82 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.44 | – | – | – |
| 2FC Utrecht | 35% | 2.82 | – | – | – |
Pick: FC Utrecht. Calibrated probability 29% (raw model output 35%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 71%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.29 – 1.29| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 73% | 27% |
| 2.5 | 48% | 52% |
| 3.5 | 26% | 74% |
| Both teams to score | Yes52% | No48% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.6%
- 0–19.8%
- 1–09.8%
- 1–28.1%
- 2–18.1%
- 0–07.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 49% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FC Groningen 0| FC Groningen line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16% | – | 84% |
| -1 | 16% | 21% | 63% |
| -0.5 | 37% | – | 63% |
| 0 | 37% | 27% | 37% |
| +0.5 | 63% | – | 37% |
| +1 | 63% | 21% | 16% |
| +1.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.