FC Utrecht
AZ Alkmaar
The model leans FC Utrecht at 37%. Expected goals: FC Utrecht 1.53, AZ Alkmaar 1.43. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 61%. FC Utrecht won 0 of their last 5; AZ Alkmaar won 6 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Utrecht | 39% | 2.58 | 2.88 | 33% | +6 |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.74 | 3.70 | 26% | +1 |
| 2AZ Alkmaar | 34% | 2.90 | 2.30 | 41% | −7 |
Pick: FC Utrecht. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 39%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.53 – 1.43| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 79% | 21% |
| 2.5 | 57% | 43% |
| 3.5 | 34% | 66% |
| Both teams to score | Yes60% | No40% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.4%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–28.1%
- 1–07.9%
- 0–17.4%
- 2–26.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 51% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FC Utrecht 0| FC Utrecht line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 20% | – | 80% |
| -1 | 20% | 20% | 60% |
| -0.5 | 40% | – | 60% |
| 0 | 40% | 24% | 36% |
| +0.5 | 64% | – | 36% |
| +1 | 64% | 19% | 16% |
| +1.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.