Fortuna Sittard
AZ Alkmaar
The model leans AZ Alkmaar at 50%. Expected goals: Fortuna Sittard 1.42, AZ Alkmaar 2.17. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 68%. Fortuna Sittard won 2 of their last 6; AZ Alkmaar won 6 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Fortuna Sittard | 24% | 4.18 | 5.00 | 19% | +5 |
| XDraw | 22% | 4.49 | 4.10 | 23% | −1 |
| 2AZ Alkmaar | 54% | 1.86 | 1.65 | 58% | −4 |
Pick: AZ Alkmaar. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 54%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.42 – 2.17| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 87% | 13% |
| 2.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 3.5 | 48% | 52% |
| Both teams to score | Yes67% | No33% |
Most likely scores
- 1–29.2%
- 1–18.5%
- 1–36.7%
- 2–26.5%
- 0–26.5%
- 2–16.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: AZ Alkmaar −0.5| Fortuna Sittard line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11% | – | 89% |
| -1 | 11% | 14% | 75% |
| -0.5 | 25% | – | 75% |
| 0 | 25% | 21% | 55% |
| +0.5 | 45% | – | 55% |
| +1 | 45% | 21% | 33% |
| +1.5 | 67% | – | 33% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.