Olympiacos
Fortuna Sittard
The model leans Olympiacos at 67%. Expected goals: Olympiacos 2.42, Fortuna Sittard 0.65. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 56%. Olympiacos won 3 of their last 6; Fortuna Sittard won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Olympiacos | 76% | 1.32 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 17% | 5.94 | – | – | – |
| 2Fortuna Sittard | 7% | 13.62 | – | – | – |
Pick: Olympiacos. Calibrated probability 67% (raw model output 76%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 93%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.42 – 0.65| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 81% | 19% |
| 2.5 | 59% | 41% |
| 3.5 | 37% | 63% |
| Both teams to score | Yes44% | No56% |
Most likely scores
- 2–013.6%
- 1–011.2%
- 3–011.0%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–17.3%
- 3–17.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 54% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Olympiacos −1.5| Olympiacos line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 54% | – | 46% |
| -1 | 54% | 23% | 23% |
| -0.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
| 0 | 77% | 15% | 8% |
| +0.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
| +1 | 92% | 6% | 2% |
| +1.5 | 98% | – | 2% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.