AZ Alkmaar
Olympiacos
The model leans Olympiacos at 41%. Expected goals: AZ Alkmaar 1.06, Olympiacos 1.43. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 51%. AZ Alkmaar won 6 of their last 6; Olympiacos won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AZ Alkmaar | 27% | 3.72 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.44 | – | – | – |
| 2Olympiacos | 44% | 2.27 | – | – | – |
Pick: Olympiacos. Calibrated probability 41% (raw model output 44%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.06 – 1.43| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 2.5 | 45% | 55% |
| 3.5 | 24% | 76% |
| Both teams to score | Yes50% | No50% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.6%
- 0–111.9%
- 1–29.0%
- 1–08.8%
- 0–28.4%
- 0–08.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Olympiacos −0.5| AZ Alkmaar line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11% | – | 89% |
| -1 | 11% | 17% | 72% |
| -0.5 | 28% | – | 72% |
| 0 | 28% | 27% | 45% |
| +0.5 | 55% | – | 45% |
| +1 | 55% | 23% | 22% |
| +1.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.