PSV Eindhoven
AZ Alkmaar
The model leans PSV Eindhoven at 55%. Expected goals: PSV Eindhoven 2.85, AZ Alkmaar 1.54. Over 2.5 goals 81%, both teams to score 75%. PSV Eindhoven won 4 of their last 6; AZ Alkmaar won 6 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1PSV Eindhoven | 64% | 1.56 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 18% | 5.68 | – | – | – |
| 2AZ Alkmaar | 18% | 5.48 | – | – | – |
Pick: PSV Eindhoven. Calibrated probability 55% (raw model output 64%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 82%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.85 – 1.54| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 93% | 7% |
| 2.5 | 81% | 19% |
| 3.5 | 64% | 36% |
| Both teams to score | Yes74% | No26% |
Most likely scores
- 2–17.8%
- 3–17.4%
- 2–26.0%
- 3–25.7%
- 1–15.4%
- 4–15.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 69% · BTTS Yes 60%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: PSV Eindhoven −1| PSV Eindhoven line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 45% | – | 55% |
| -1 | 45% | 20% | 35% |
| -0.5 | 65% | – | 35% |
| 0 | 65% | 17% | 19% |
| +0.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
| +1 | 81% | 11% | 8% |
| +1.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.