Excelsior
PSV Eindhoven
The model leans PSV Eindhoven at 60%. Expected goals: Excelsior 1.33, PSV Eindhoven 2.72. Over 2.5 goals 77%, both teams to score 69%. Excelsior won 4 of their last 5; PSV Eindhoven won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Excelsior | 16% | 6.29 | 6.50 | 14% | +1 |
| XDraw | 18% | 5.59 | 4.75 | 20% | −2 |
| 2PSV Eindhoven | 66% | 1.51 | 1.44 | 66% | +1 |
Pick: PSV Eindhoven. Calibrated probability 60% (raw model output 66%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 84%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.33 – 2.72| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 91% | 9% |
| 2.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 3.5 | 57% | 43% |
| Both teams to score | Yes69% | No31% |
Most likely scores
- 1–28.6%
- 1–37.8%
- 0–26.5%
- 1–16.3%
- 0–35.9%
- 2–25.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 64% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: PSV Eindhoven −1.5| Excelsior line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 7% | – | 93% |
| -1 | 7% | 10% | 83% |
| -0.5 | 17% | – | 83% |
| 0 | 17% | 17% | 67% |
| +0.5 | 33% | – | 67% |
| +1 | 33% | 20% | 46% |
| +1.5 | 54% | – | 46% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.