NAC Breda
Excelsior
The model leans Excelsior at 38%. Expected goals: NAC Breda 1.20, Excelsior 1.41. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 54%. NAC Breda won 2 of their last 6; Excelsior won 4 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1NAC Breda | 31% | 3.24 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.49 | – | – | – |
| 2Excelsior | 40% | 2.47 | – | – | – |
Pick: Excelsior. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 71%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.20 – 1.41| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 73% | 27% |
| 2.5 | 48% | 52% |
| 3.5 | 27% | 73% |
| Both teams to score | Yes53% | No47% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.4%
- 0–110.3%
- 1–08.8%
- 1–28.8%
- 2–17.5%
- 0–07.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 48% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: NAC Breda 0| NAC Breda line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 13% | – | 87% |
| -1 | 13% | 19% | 68% |
| -0.5 | 32% | – | 68% |
| 0 | 32% | 26% | 42% |
| +0.5 | 58% | – | 42% |
| +1 | 58% | 22% | 20% |
| +1.5 | 80% | – | 20% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.