Roda JC Kerkrade
NAC Breda
The model leans Roda JC Kerkrade at 38%. Expected goals: Roda JC Kerkrade 1.39, NAC Breda 1.18. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 53%. Roda JC Kerkrade won 2 of their last 4; NAC Breda won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Roda JC Kerkrade | 40% | 2.47 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.46 | – | – | – |
| 2NAC Breda | 31% | 3.26 | – | – | – |
Pick: Roda JC Kerkrade. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 71%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.39 – 1.18| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 73% | 27% |
| 2.5 | 47% | 53% |
| 3.5 | 26% | 74% |
| Both teams to score | Yes52% | No48% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.5%
- 1–010.6%
- 0–19.0%
- 2–18.7%
- 0–07.6%
- 1–27.4%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 49% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Roda JC Kerkrade 0| Roda JC Kerkrade line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 20% | – | 80% |
| -1 | 20% | 22% | 58% |
| -0.5 | 42% | – | 58% |
| 0 | 42% | 26% | 32% |
| +0.5 | 68% | – | 32% |
| +1 | 68% | 19% | 13% |
| +1.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.