TOP Oss
NAC Breda
The model leans TOP Oss at 33%. Expected goals: TOP Oss 1.43, NAC Breda 1.43. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 59%. TOP Oss won 1 of their last 4; NAC Breda won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1TOP Oss | 36% | 2.75 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.66 | – | – | – |
| 2NAC Breda | 36% | 2.75 | – | – | – |
Pick: TOP Oss. Calibrated probability 33% (raw model output 36%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.43 – 1.43| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78% | 22% |
| 2.5 | 54% | 46% |
| 3.5 | 32% | 68% |
| Both teams to score | Yes58% | No42% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.7%
- 2–18.4%
- 1–28.4%
- 1–08.2%
- 0–18.2%
- 2–26.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 55%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: TOP Oss 0| TOP Oss line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18% | – | 82% |
| -1 | 18% | 20% | 62% |
| -0.5 | 38% | – | 62% |
| 0 | 38% | 25% | 37% |
| +0.5 | 63% | – | 37% |
| +1 | 63% | 20% | 18% |
| +1.5 | 82% | – | 18% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.