Bolton Wanderers
NAC Breda
The model leans Bolton Wanderers at 53%. Expected goals: Bolton Wanderers 1.90, NAC Breda 0.90. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 51%. Bolton Wanderers won 2 of their last 6; NAC Breda won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Bolton Wanderers | 60% | 1.67 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.18 | – | – | – |
| 2NAC Breda | 16% | 6.18 | – | – | – |
Pick: Bolton Wanderers. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 60%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 84%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.90 – 0.90| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 2.5 | 53% | 47% |
| 3.5 | 31% | 69% |
| Both teams to score | Yes50% | No50% |
Most likely scores
- 1–011.6%
- 2–011.0%
- 1–110.4%
- 2–19.9%
- 3–07.0%
- 3–16.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Bolton Wanderers −1| Bolton Wanderers line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 36% | – | 64% |
| -1 | 36% | 25% | 39% |
| -0.5 | 61% | – | 39% |
| 0 | 61% | 22% | 17% |
| +0.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
| +1 | 83% | 12% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.