Bolton Wanderers
Lincoln City
The model leans Lincoln City at 44%. Expected goals: Bolton Wanderers 1.15, Lincoln City 1.62. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 56%. Bolton Wanderers won 2 of their last 6; Lincoln City won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Bolton Wanderers | 26% | 3.86 | 2.45 | 38% | −12 |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.71 | 3.30 | 28% | −1 |
| 2Lincoln City | 47% | 2.12 | 2.75 | 34% | +13 |
Pick: Lincoln City. Calibrated probability 44% (raw model output 47%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.15 – 1.62| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 76% | 24% |
| 2.5 | 52% | 48% |
| 3.5 | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams to score | Yes55% | No45% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.7%
- 0–110.1%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–28.2%
- 1–07.2%
- 2–16.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 49% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Lincoln City −0.5| Bolton Wanderers line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11% | – | 89% |
| -1 | 11% | 16% | 73% |
| -0.5 | 27% | – | 73% |
| 0 | 27% | 25% | 48% |
| +0.5 | 52% | – | 48% |
| +1 | 52% | 23% | 25% |
| +1.5 | 75% | – | 25% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.