Sheffield Wednesday
Bolton Wanderers
The model leans Bolton Wanderers at 57%. Expected goals: Sheffield Wednesday 0.65, Bolton Wanderers 1.86. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 59%. Sheffield Wednesday won 4 of their last 6; Bolton Wanderers won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sheffield Wednesday | 11% | 8.86 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.30 | – | – | – |
| 2Bolton Wanderers | 65% | 1.53 | – | – | – |
Pick: Bolton Wanderers. Calibrated probability 57% (raw model output 65%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 89%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.65 – 1.86| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 2.5 | 46% | 54% |
| 3.5 | 25% | 75% |
| Both teams to score | Yes40% | No60% |
Most likely scores
- 0–115.1%
- 0–214.1%
- 1–19.8%
- 1–29.1%
- 0–38.7%
- 0–08.1%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Bolton Wanderers −1| Sheffield Wednesday line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 3% | – | 97% |
| -1 | 3% | 9% | 88% |
| -0.5 | 12% | – | 88% |
| 0 | 12% | 21% | 66% |
| +0.5 | 34% | – | 66% |
| +1 | 34% | 26% | 40% |
| +1.5 | 60% | – | 40% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.