Sheffield United
Bolton Wanderers
The model leans Sheffield United at 37%. Expected goals: Sheffield United 1.64, Bolton Wanderers 1.55. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 65%. Sheffield United won 3 of their last 6; Bolton Wanderers won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sheffield United | 39% | 2.55 | 1.56 | 59% | −20 |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.92 | 3.90 | 24% | +2 |
| 2Bolton Wanderers | 35% | 2.84 | 5.50 | 17% | +18 |
Pick: Sheffield United. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 39%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.64 – 1.55| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 83% | 17% |
| 2.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 3.5 | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams to score | Yes64% | No36% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.4%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–28.1%
- 1–06.7%
- 2–26.7%
- 0–16.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Sheffield United 0| Sheffield United line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 20% | – | 80% |
| -1 | 20% | 20% | 60% |
| -0.5 | 40% | – | 60% |
| 0 | 40% | 23% | 36% |
| +0.5 | 64% | – | 36% |
| +1 | 64% | 19% | 18% |
| +1.5 | 82% | – | 18% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.