Mansfield Town
Sheffield United
The model leans Mansfield Town at 50%. Expected goals: Mansfield Town 1.76, Sheffield United 1.20. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 59%. Mansfield Town won 2 of their last 4; Sheffield United won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Mansfield Town | 49% | 2.02 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.90 | – | – | – |
| 2Sheffield United | 25% | 4.02 | – | – | – |
Pick: Mansfield Town. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 49%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.76 – 1.20| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 79% | 21% |
| 2.5 | 57% | 43% |
| 3.5 | 34% | 66% |
| Both teams to score | Yes58% | No42% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.9%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–09.1%
- 2–08.0%
- 1–26.6%
- 0–16.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 52% · BTTS Yes 55%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Mansfield Town −0.5| Mansfield Town line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 28% | – | 72% |
| -1 | 28% | 23% | 49% |
| -0.5 | 51% | – | 49% |
| 0 | 51% | 23% | 26% |
| +0.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
| +1 | 74% | 16% | 10% |
| +1.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.