Mansfield Town
Luton Town
The model leans Mansfield Town at 39%. Expected goals: Mansfield Town 1.45, Luton Town 1.17. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 54%. Mansfield Town won 2 of their last 4; Luton Town won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Mansfield Town | 42% | 2.37 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.51 | – | – | – |
| 2Luton Town | 29% | 3.41 | – | – | – |
Pick: Mansfield Town. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 42%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.45 – 1.17| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 2.5 | 49% | 51% |
| 3.5 | 27% | 73% |
| Both teams to score | Yes53% | No47% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.4%
- 1–010.6%
- 2–18.9%
- 0–18.6%
- 2–07.6%
- 0–07.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 47% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Mansfield Town 0| Mansfield Town line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 21% | – | 79% |
| -1 | 21% | 22% | 57% |
| -0.5 | 43% | – | 57% |
| 0 | 43% | 26% | 31% |
| +0.5 | 69% | – | 31% |
| +1 | 69% | 18% | 12% |
| +1.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.