Mansfield Town
Doncaster Rovers
The model leans Mansfield Town at 50%. Expected goals: Mansfield Town 1.65, Doncaster Rovers 0.91. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 51%. Mansfield Town won 2 of their last 4; Doncaster Rovers won 0 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Mansfield Town | 54% | 1.87 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.73 | – | – | – |
| 2Doncaster Rovers | 20% | 5.10 | – | – | – |
Pick: Mansfield Town. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 54%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 80%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.65 – 0.91| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 2.5 | 47% | 53% |
| 3.5 | 26% | 74% |
| Both teams to score | Yes48% | No52% |
Most likely scores
- 1–012.8%
- 1–111.6%
- 2–010.5%
- 2–19.6%
- 0–07.7%
- 0–17.0%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Mansfield Town −0.5| Mansfield Town line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 30% | – | 70% |
| -1 | 30% | 25% | 45% |
| -0.5 | 55% | – | 45% |
| 0 | 55% | 25% | 21% |
| +0.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
| +1 | 79% | 14% | 7% |
| +1.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.