Doncaster Rovers
Middlesbrough
The model leans Middlesbrough at 40%. Expected goals: Doncaster Rovers 1.14, Middlesbrough 1.46. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 53%. Doncaster Rovers won 0 of their last 6; Middlesbrough won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Doncaster Rovers | 28% | 3.51 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.51 | – | – | – |
| 2Middlesbrough | 43% | 2.32 | – | – | – |
Pick: Middlesbrough. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.14 – 1.46| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 73% | 27% |
| 2.5 | 48% | 52% |
| 3.5 | 26% | 74% |
| Both teams to score | Yes52% | No48% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.4%
- 0–110.8%
- 1–29.0%
- 1–08.5%
- 0–27.9%
- 0–07.4%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 48% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Middlesbrough −0.5| Doncaster Rovers line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12% | – | 88% |
| -1 | 12% | 18% | 70% |
| -0.5 | 30% | – | 70% |
| 0 | 30% | 26% | 44% |
| +0.5 | 56% | – | 44% |
| +1 | 56% | 23% | 22% |
| +1.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.