Predictions · EFL Cup · outside model coverage

Stockport County

11
Lost

Doncaster Rovers

The model leans Stockport County at 50%. Expected goals: Stockport County 1.77, Doncaster Rovers 1.03. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 54%. Stockport County won 3 of their last 6; Doncaster Rovers won 0 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Stockport County54%1.86
XDraw26%3.91
2Doncaster Rovers21%4.83

Pick: Stockport County. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 54%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 79%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.77 – 1.03
LineOverUnder
1.577%23%
2.553%47%
3.531%69%
Both teams to scoreYes53%No47%

Most likely scores

  • 1111.1%
  • 1010.8%
  • 219.8%
  • 209.6%
  • 016.2%
  • 006.1%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Stockport County −0.5
Stockport County lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.531%69%
-131%24%45%
-0.555%45%
055%23%22%
+0.578%22%
+178%14%8%
+1.592%8%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.