Luton Town
Stockport County
The model leans Luton Town at 41%. Expected goals: Luton Town 1.61, Stockport County 1.28. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 59%. Luton Town won 3 of their last 6; Stockport County won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Luton Town | 44% | 2.27 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.74 | – | – | – |
| 2Stockport County | 29% | 3.43 | – | – | – |
Pick: Luton Town. Calibrated probability 41% (raw model output 44%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.61 – 1.28| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78% | 22% |
| 2.5 | 55% | 45% |
| 3.5 | 33% | 67% |
| Both teams to score | Yes58% | No42% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.5%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–09.0%
- 1–27.3%
- 2–07.2%
- 0–17.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 54%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Luton Town −0.5| Luton Town line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 23% | – | 77% |
| -1 | 23% | 22% | 55% |
| -0.5 | 45% | – | 55% |
| 0 | 45% | 24% | 30% |
| +0.5 | 70% | – | 30% |
| +1 | 70% | 17% | 13% |
| +1.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.