Chelsea
Luton Town
The model leans Chelsea at 68%. Expected goals: Chelsea 2.92, Luton Town 0.90. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 57%. Chelsea won 4 of their last 6; Luton Town won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Chelsea | 78% | 1.28 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 14% | 7.05 | – | – | – |
| 2Luton Town | 8% | 12.55 | – | – | – |
Pick: Chelsea. Calibrated probability 68% (raw model output 78%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 92%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.92 – 0.90| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 89% | 11% |
| 2.5 | 73% | 27% |
| 3.5 | 53% | 47% |
| Both teams to score | Yes56% | No44% |
Most likely scores
- 2–09.4%
- 3–09.1%
- 2–18.4%
- 3–18.2%
- 4–06.7%
- 1–06.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 60% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Chelsea −2| Chelsea line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 59% | – | 41% |
| -1 | 59% | 19% | 22% |
| -0.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
| 0 | 78% | 13% | 9% |
| +0.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
| +1 | 91% | 6% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.