Chelsea
Tottenham Hotspur
The model leans Chelsea at 51%. Expected goals: Chelsea 2.07, Tottenham Hotspur 1.23. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 63%. Chelsea won 4 of their last 6; Tottenham Hotspur won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Chelsea | 56% | 1.79 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.37 | – | – | – |
| 2Tottenham Hotspur | 21% | 4.73 | – | – | – |
Pick: Chelsea. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 56%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 79%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.07 – 1.23| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 84% | 16% |
| 2.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 3.5 | 42% | 58% |
| Both teams to score | Yes62% | No38% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.7%
- 1–19.4%
- 2–07.9%
- 1–07.7%
- 3–16.7%
- 2–26.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Chelsea −1| Chelsea line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 34% | – | 66% |
| -1 | 34% | 23% | 43% |
| -0.5 | 57% | – | 43% |
| 0 | 57% | 21% | 22% |
| +0.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
| +1 | 78% | 13% | 9% |
| +1.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.