Tottenham Hotspur
Charlton Athletic
The model leans Tottenham Hotspur at 67%. Expected goals: Tottenham Hotspur 2.35, Charlton Athletic 0.59. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 59%. Tottenham Hotspur won 4 of their last 6; Charlton Athletic won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Tottenham Hotspur | 76% | 1.32 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 17% | 5.84 | – | – | – |
| 2Charlton Athletic | 7% | 14.47 | – | – | – |
Pick: Tottenham Hotspur. Calibrated probability 67% (raw model output 76%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 93%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.35 – 0.59| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 79% | 21% |
| 2.5 | 56% | 44% |
| 3.5 | 34% | 66% |
| Both teams to score | Yes41% | No59% |
Most likely scores
- 2–014.6%
- 1–012.4%
- 3–011.4%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–17.4%
- 3–16.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 51% · BTTS No 54%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Tottenham Hotspur −1.5| Tottenham Hotspur line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 53% | – | 47% |
| -1 | 53% | 23% | 23% |
| -0.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
| 0 | 77% | 16% | 8% |
| +0.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
| +1 | 92% | 6% | 2% |
| +1.5 | 98% | – | 2% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.